U.S. housing markets most vulnerable to downturns this summer were concentrated in California, Florida, New Jersey, and Louisiana, according to ATTOM’s second-quarter 2025 Housing Risk Report. The analysis, which ranks county-level risk based on affordability, mortgage stress, foreclosure activity, and unemployment, found that 21 of the 50 riskiest counties were in the South.
California alone accounted for 14 of the highest-risk markets, followed by Florida with seven, New Jersey with five, and Louisiana with four. At the other end of the spectrum, the healthiest markets were spread evenly between the South and Northeast, each with 18 counties in the least-risky cohort.
Affordability Squeeze
Nationwide, owning a median-priced home consumed 33.7% of the average household’s annualized wages in the second quarter. In some coastal and resort markets, however, costs far outstripped local pay. Home expenses required 119.7% of annual wages in Marin County, California, 116.1% in Santa Cruz County, 111.5% in Maui County, Hawaii, and 109% in Kings County, New York.
Overall, 63% of the 579 counties analyzed required residents to spend at least a third of annual wages on housing, and 111 counties — about 19% — required half or more.
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Author: Monsef Rachid
